Staying Behind: Limited Displacement and Inequality After Wildfires in the U.S.

Only the most severe wildfires actually push people to migrate out of their homes after a natural disaster in the U.S. Most people stay behind.

As wildfire seasons become more frequent and severe across North America, the question of how people respond—whether by moving or staying—is an increasingly urgent one. Research by CMS affiliate Professor Kathryn McConnell finds that most people do not migrate after wildfire-related disasters in the U.S., offering insights for climate adaptation and disaster relief planning in Canada and beyond.

Key Findings

• Most U.S. wildfires between 1999-2020 did not cause significant population mobility. People tended to migrate only when fires caused major structural damage.
• Wildfires, even destructive fires, do not cause long-term or permanent population shifts. Instead, migration due to wildfires is often short-lived, with residents returning within a year.
• Both emotional ties and limited economic options could drive individuals’ decisions to stay put after wildfires. There is some information on the drivers of immobility, but they need to be studied more.

---

Recommendations

• Wildfire recovery planning should account for those who stay. Many residents stay in place after destructive wildfires, and financial support should focus on the needs of those who stay.
• Post-disaster response should also provide early support after destructive wildfires. The most needed assistance comes in the months immediately after a wildfire, and governments should deliver housing, financial aid, and other recovery services immediately after fires.
• Federal and state agencies should create and share migration data that includes demographic details. More data would help identify which communities are more likely to relocate after wildfires, supporting more targeted disaster and recovery planning.

---

Implications for Current Events

In early 2025, wildfires in Los Angeles destroyed thousands of homes, raising alarms about possible long-term displacement. Similarly, Canada is facing one of its worst wildfire seasons on record, with widespread evacuations in provinces like Alberta. Yet, despite the scale of these events, we still know very little about how wildfire destruction in fire-prone regions impacts whether individuals stay put or leave.

Professor Kathryn McConnell and her colleagues’ research offers a starting place, finding that across more than two decades of wildfire events in the U.S., large-scale migration occurred only after extreme structure loss, and even then, often only for short stints. In both the U.S. and Canada, there is a need to strengthen support for emergency housing, local recovery planning, and rebuilding efforts, alongside continued attention to displacement risks. Recognizing the diverse ways people respond to environmental hazards is key. Recovery strategies should consider not only those who leave wildfire zones but also the majority who stay behind.

---

About the Authors

Kathryn McConnell is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of British Columbia. Her work explores how climate change intersects with the built environment and shapes patterns of population movement. With a focus on climate-related hazards and social inequality, she uses sociological tools to support more equitable approaches to climate adaptation and mitigation. Before joining UBC, Dr. McConnell held a postdoctoral position at Brown University’s Population Studies and Training Center. She earned her Ph.D. and Master’s in Environmental Science from Yale University, and her undergraduate degree from Wesleyan University.

Marjorie Rugunda is a PhD student in the department of Gender, Race, Sexuality and Social Justice at the University of British Columbia. She holds a BA degree from Rhodes University, South Africa and a Master’s degree from the University of Calgary. Her current research studies how institutions within Africa represent entrenched colonial legacies that shape contemporary social and political relations in (post)colonial contexts.

---

This publication is part of the CMS Migration Insights Series. The research briefs synthesize peer-reviewed, published academic research by CMS affiliates.